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"Patjhad pedonse seekho dukh me dheeraj dharna" (learn from the trees in autumn to keep faith and await better times, till the leaves sprout) - the old saying came to mind as I was talking to some investors who had thrown in the proverbial towel.
The current financial maelstrom has knocked out the dental fillings of even the most optimistic equity investors. The ferocity with which it has hit the world and the institutions that it has started to wash away are both mind-boggling and unnerving. It's like the aftermath of a volcanic eruption, with lava spilt all over the surrounding country and all things left charred.
But, on the positive side, areas with volcanic activity also offer extremely fertile land for cultivation. Take the lower reaches of Mount Vesuvius, which have many orchards and vineyards.
Threats need not just be threats — it's how we accept them.Agreed the situation is bad now. People are losing jobs. Liquidity is tight. There is uncertainty everywhere. And the stock market is down a whopping 56% from its peak in January this year. The situation abroad is worse.
Still, look at it the other way round, and this is an opportunity - depending on the time frame with which we invest and our faith in the India story. People need to go about their business - recession or not. They still need homes, need to eat, need conveyance, need to save, pay their EMIs… With most parts of the economy intact, why the gloom?
There still is a ground-swell of demand for everything. It is mainly the dearth of liquidity that is creating problems, compounded by the uncertainty stemming from the still-unfolding crisis abroad.
It's not enough to know that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the Indian economy. Investors should also see the opportunity that is on a platter for them now, whether in equity or real estate. And that needs guts and gumption both.
We might see further correction, on account of absolute investor disinterest, among other things. But, there's no saying when the bottom is made. Besides, when the markets look up, it does not matter whether you bought when the market was down 57% or 60%. Long-term investors will anyway make a profit.
Investors need to guard against the fallacy of not making any investment at all, for then they will stand on the sidelines and rue their luck and foolishness for not investing earlier.
There are several good bets now.Telecom is one. Whether the economy is booming or not, people are going to whip out their phones and talk. In a recession, they may talk more, not less. Knowing that, is it not a good idea to invest in sound companies in this space? Consider Bharti Airtel, for instance. It is a leader in this space. It has come down by 42% compared with the Sensex's 57% and has a lot of growth potential.FMCG is another. Recession or not, you will need to brush your teeth, scrub your body with soap and buy your bread, butter and jam. Then there is pharma, which is also fairly insulated.
Media and entertainment should in fact benefit from the downturn - media companies have a lot of grist for their channels and the entertainment industry may receive a boost for it provides the much needed diversion in such gloomy times.
Education, too, is an excellent business, for people are looking at reskilling themselves now. So, there is no dearth of opportunities. The question to ask is, "Am I ready for this opportunity?" Just think - would you get the stocks so cheap, if not for the adverse environment?.
Dr Radhakrishnan learned philosophy and excelled in it as he had a rack full of those books at home and made good use of it. He was a great philosopher, who used the opportunity he found on his book shelf. There is a proverbial saying in Tamil, which means "arrange your childbirth, where you find the right herbs." Moral of the story - take the opportunity with both hands. Actually, most of us know this deep down, but freeze in our tracks when adversity strikes. Overcome that fear.
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